Labs · Built in the open

Mapping technology & market realities.

Small interactive instruments that turn a fuzzy feeling into something you can actually look at — starting with my own lens on supply chains, macro risk, and industry metrics. Free to use; the methodology is open.

Event tracker

The 2026 Super El Niño

The heat wave is chapter one. Track the wave dimension by dimension — ocean, heat, harvests, fertilizer, dinner — with what has already hit and what the evidence projects next. Open the tracker →

Updated 2026-07-05 · every number sourced.

Market analysis

The AI compute value chain

From cloud-giant capex down to chips, packaging, power, copper and rare-earth processing — where each layer clips the next margin, and what the market may still be lazy about. Open the instrument →

All 25 layers verified across 3 research passes.

Workflow analysis

AI Builds Fast Lanes Inside Company Red Lights

The companion workflow simulator for the essay: speed up one task, then watch the real bottleneck move to handoffs, approvals, data gaps and management loops. Open the essay →

Interactive route simulator embedded in the article.

On the workbench

Instruments in design. Each one ships only when it runs on real, sourced data — a chart with made-up numbers is exactly the thing this site argues against.

Coming soon

The Eval Index

A weekly read on the gap between loud AI claims and rigorous evidence. Ships when the methodology and the data feed are real — not before.

Coming soon

The Doomer Index

How fearful the AI conversation sounds — a counterweight to the hype line. Same rule: real data or nothing.

Coming soon

Model Release Cadence

Time between frontier releases, quarter by quarter.

Coming soon

Jobs-at-Risk Tracker

Which roles the discourse claims are next — and when.