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AI & Judgement

AI Is the New Electricity

General-purpose technology changes everything — slowly, then all at once.

Electricity did not arrive as a thunderclap. The dynamo was decades old before factories were redesigned around it — and that redesign, not the dynamo, was where the productivity came from.

AI is following the same script. The capability lands first; the rewiring of how work is organised lags by years. That gap is where the disappointment lives — and where the advantage is.

The factory had to change shape

Early electrified factories simply swapped a steam engine for an electric one and kept the same cramped layout built around a single central drive shaft. Output barely moved. Only when plants spread out, put a motor on every machine, and re-laid the workflow did the gains show up.

The technology is the easy part. The reorganisation it demands is the hard, slow, valuable part.
— On general-purpose technology

Swapping a human draft for a machine draft and changing nothing else is the modern central drive shaft. It works, barely, and convinces people the revolution was oversold.

Wire the building

The opportunity is not the model. It is the willingness to redesign the process the model now makes possible — and to do it before your competitors finish arguing about whether it is hype.

Johnny’s verdict

Assume the capability is roughly fixed for the next year. Spend your energy on the layout, not the dynamo. The building that gets rewired first wins the decade.

Sources

  1. [1]General Purpose Technologies and Economic GrowthBresnahan & Trajtenberg · accessed 2026-05-28
AI assisted with drafting, structure and formatting. Johnny Han edited and approved the final argument.